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Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/March
March Week 1 March is definitely coming in like a lamb in the tropics. 100 knot shear and incredible dry air - now's a good time for a tropical vacation! (Unless you're a storm chaser) CrazyC83 16:53, 28 February 2006 (UTC) AoI:03W1A: Loop Current There is a mid-level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico sitting over the Gulf loop current (which is still luke-warm). I don't know that it is going to do anything, but it in a place where it possibly can. In the summer, this system would be a prime candidate for tropical development. Right now, it maybe barely has a chance to develop. --EMS | Talk 15:26, 2 March 2006 (UTC) :Way too much shear. It has almost no chance of getting organized, even though the SST's are almost suitable for tropical development - even at the low point. CrazyC83 16:08, 2 March 2006 (UTC) Looking at a new map, the shear suddenly disappeared...I'd give it about a 5% chance of developing. CrazyC83 16:11, 2 March 2006 (UTC) :: The lack of shear is what impressed me, and let me feel that this is an AoI. I largely agree with your 5% assessment. It could develop, but that is a roll of some highly unfavorable dice. --EMS | Talk 18:07, 2 March 2006 (UTC) ::: That 5% is what you gave Zeta of developing into an invest when I gave the AoI, Crazy ;) Here's a link to Floater 1, which is on it: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg -- RattleMan 01:20, 3 March 2006 (UTC) ::::I remember Zeta, giving it that low likelihood on the cold SST's that it fought its way into. The SST's here with the Loop Current are warmer than it was with Zeta (about 25-27°C), and if it builds into the low shear, this could be the March Miracle (unless you're living on the Gulf Coast)...dry air is the only thing holding it back now. CrazyC83 05:12, 3 March 2006 (UTC) is the gulf loop current warmer than usual? do low pressure systems usually look as impressive as this at this time of year? or is this normal?--HurricaneRo 23:21, 2 March 2006 (UTC) : Yes, the Gulf loop current is warmer than usual for this time of year. As for how usual this type of system is in March, I cannot say as this is the first winter that I have cared to keep tabs on the tropics. Actually I suspect that it is not all that unusal. Instead what would be unusual is for there to be tropical development, which does not seen to happening at all at this time. --EMS | Talk 06:18, 3 March 2006 (UTC) The convection's weak but covering a larger area than ever now. It's really eating away at that dry air. --Coredesat 01:05, 3 March 2006 (UTC) Wow! I am a little surprised. There seems to be a bit of a circulation, and the convection, though waning, is redeveloping on the east side. I can't believe I'm saying this but this needs to be watched. Hurricanehink 01:48, 3 March 2006 (UTC) :The NHC is downplaying it, calling it merely a cutoff low with a connecting trough. The convection looks pretty strong for that, but it is not well organized. Right now, I think the chance of it becoming an Invest is 25%, the chance of it becoming TD1/Alberto is still 5%. CrazyC83 05:19, 3 March 2006 (UTC) ::Uh, wheres the system because on NCDC site theres no cyclonic storm in the Gulf of Mexico, just a line of thunderstorms. Storm05 17:26, 3 March 2006 (UTC) :::Nevermind I found it. Storm05 17:31, 3 March 2006 (UTC) The system is now sheared and appears to be losing steam. --EMS | Talk 18:19, 3 March 2006 (UTC) :Shear increased to about 20-30 knots overnight (it was less than 10 knots yesterday). CrazyC83 19:06, 3 March 2006 (UTC) I went to the NHC site and they put a little more attention to it on the tropical weather discussion and said that it has developed a more curvature structure and at this rate a surface low could development they even mentioned development saying that global models arent forecasting any development at this time....so it must be pretty serious ... i am impressed by this system, it seems like june already --HurricaneRo 22:33, 3 March 2006 (UTC) ::It's felt like June since Zeta dissipated...to all I see, it is an eternal hurricane season... CrazyC83 23:01, 3 March 2006 (UTC) ::: I wouldn't go that far, but it took the Atlantic an overly long time to cool down and even now it is not all that cool. This does not feel like an eternal hurricane season to me. Instead this winter the Atlantic feels like a sleeping beast. --EMS | Talk 23:07, 3 March 2006 (UTC) ::::Considering we are at about the midpoint between hurricane seasons, it is all downhill from here... CrazyC83 01:22, 4 March 2006 (UTC) ::::: True, but don't hold your breath waiting for the first storm or two. Maybe we will get a storm in May, and it is slightly possible that we may get one earlier. The beast will begin to stretch in May, and come awake in June. By August I expect a hot ocean all the way across and up to 35°N latitude, and at times full of storms. --EMS | Talk 03:48, 5 March 2006 (UTC) Weeks 2 and 3 -HEY ...does anybody know if that low will cross over(into the gulf)the 1 on the coast of Mexico and if it does what do u guys think will happen??--HurricaneRo 00:49, 10 March 2006 (UTC) : First of all, we don't worry about lows like that even if they do cross Mexico. Secondly, conditions in the Atlantic basin are abominable for tropical cyclone formations now. Even in the Carribean, the SSTs are highly marginal to just plain too cold for cyclogenesis, and the shear is quite high. If this wasn't 2006 I would tell you to hold your horses until June. Even in 2006, I counsel patience until May and care about what you are calling attention to in any case. --EMS | Talk 03:07, 10 March 2006 (UTC) AoI:03W2A - Low off SE US hello! umm i have a question that low that is near the Carolinas..can it potnetially develop, i mean it has circulation and showers so im wondering?--HurricaneRo 00:08, 8 March 2006 (UTC) : Develop yes, but more likely into a rainy Nor'easter than a tropical cyclone...the only way it can develop into anything tropical is if it moves well southeast over the subtropical 21-23°C water. The water off the Carolinas is 16-19°C, far too cold for tropical activity. CrazyC83 23:05, 7 March 2006 (UTC) :: It looks to me like the lower level near-circulation is headed strongly to the SE. So this system may bear watching. Even so, I agree that cyclogenesis is highly unlikely. --EMS | Talk 23:20, 7 March 2006 (UTC) The 7:05 3/7/06 tropical weather discussion describes this system as follows: 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N724W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N . So it seems that the NWS is not taking this system very seriously. --EMS | Talk 23:55, 7 March 2006 (UTC) Oh ok i get it... thanks, It is so weird how close they look to hurricanes....they have circulation and showers around them--HurricaneRo 00:08, 8 March 2006 (UTC) :Do you think it already is a Nor'easter? Icelandic Hurricane #12 00:26, 8 March 2006 (UTC) ::Somewhat of one, but it likely will be a "wet" Nor'easter with rain if it reaches the coast. Chance of tropical development IMO: less than 1%. It would feel like Katrina forming in March if it developed. I'm more concerned about a potential tornado outbreak tomorrow through Friday in the central states... CrazyC83 04:34, 8 March 2006 (UTC) ::: The center of the action (it really does not have a true circulation) has shifted to the north, and the system seems very much headed out to sea. So I doubt that there will any Nor'easter, and as best I can tell none is forecast. I suspect that in another day this system will be history. ::: As for this looking close to a hurricane: Low pressure systems will have thunderstorms and a circulation, but to be tropical it must have a warm core and a closed surface circulation. The latter is a much more stringent requirement than may people realize. Hurricane Ro - Give this some time, and you will soon be able to see the difference. --EMS | Talk 06:48, 8 March 2006 (UTC) The low is now a serious Atlantic storm. Had it gone up the coast, it would have been a strong Nor'easter, but it didn't. There are now no signs of either tropical or subtropical development, and as the center has continued to shift east-northeastward it has remained over waters that are way too cool to support development. I say that it is time to close the book on this system. --EMS | Talk 15:40, 8 March 2006 (UTC) :That is exactly how I would describe it too. I was never really too concerned about it becoming tropical. CrazyC83 16:13, 8 March 2006 (UTC) :: The same here. Had it not been for the initial query I would have been content to just watch it for a day or so before deciding on whether to flag it. --EMS | Talk 18:37, 8 March 2006 (UTC) Week 4 Cape Verde: Cold water upwelling The current SSTs indicate that there has been a cold water upwelling off of the Cape Verde Islands recently, and the SSTs are being eroded over a substantial area to the west of them. Let's just say that this very much bears watching. If it persists, it will literally be throwing cold water onto all of the forecasts of 2006 being another nasty hurricane season. (My current opinion is that this is a small-to-mediocre upwelling that will spread to the west and dissipate over time. It may inhibit cyclogenesis in the Carribean over the next few months, but that should be it. OTOH, in 1996 I watch a much stronger upwelling occur south of the Azores, which shut down that hurricane season and helped to suppress the 1997 season. So this is nothing to scoff at.) --EMS | Talk 16:12, 23 March 2006 (UTC) :Key words: if it persists. Cape Verde hurricane season is still about 3 months away though (mid-July to late September). Cape Verde is almost never an area of concern before the season or in June. The Caribbean and the central Atlantic are the areas to watch first. CrazyC83 16:58, 23 March 2006 (UTC) :: This colder water is already starting to the west. Within a few weeks, it will be entering the Carribean, and will squelch any chance of a late April or early May storm there. However, if this is a limited event (and I think that it is), then by June things will be getting ready to roll, and even this cooler water will be warming up. --EMS | Talk 20:14, 23 March 2006 (UTC) AoI:03W4A: Yucatan Area This satellite shot and this oneseems to show a strong area of convection off the Yucatan. I am trying to identify and find out more on it. Shear seems very high though. Can't see it developing. CrazyC83 06:12, 24 March 2006 (UTC) :I don't see anything. Icelandic Hurricane #12 13:10, 24 March 2006 (UTC) ::I see a few clouds...nothing resembling a cyclone at all. - Bladeswin 15:04, 24 March 2006 (UTC) :: Crazy83 - I think that your links are to current images, which now show a line of convection over the Yucatan associated with a cold front. I did see the convection that intrigued you yesterday in the Gulf north of the Yucatan. It did not take long to see that it was highly sheared and being quickly shoved off towards the Atlantic. Let's just say that I more than agreed with your assessment that it would not develop. --EMS | Talk 15:06, 24 March 2006 (UTC) :::It must have changed overnight; it looked pretty solid - but certainly sheared - late last night. I never expected it to develop. CrazyC83 18:10, 24 March 2006 (UTC) ::::I actually was looking at this too, and I saved images: http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/5715/gomexsat720x4866qm.jpg http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/4527/gomexsat720x48627yg.jpg and this one, from 0Z, 03Z and 06Z today: http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/5029/gomyuc9va.jpg, and some IR shots from 0245Z today and 2345Z last night -- RattleMan 18:16, 24 March 2006 (UTC) That is pretty impressive--HurricaneRo 02:24, 25 March 2006 (UTC)